Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 89 game sample- PTS
- 20.1
- SOG
- 104.7
- G
- 4.4
- A
- 15.7
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 93.1
- BLK
- 40.1
- PIM
- 17.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 89 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 89 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 89 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.05
- A
- 0.19
- SOG
- 1.27
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.13
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.26 | 87 | 11:59 |
| 2024-25 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 15 | 10:50 |
| 2023-24 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 10 | 9:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:53 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:57 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:07 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12:58 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Mar 17 | vs TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:26 |
| Mar 15 | vs FLA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 |
| Mar 14 | @ VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Mar 12 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.6 | 4 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 54 | 122 |
| 2024-25 | 0.7 | 0 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 8 | 17 |
| 2023-24 | 0.7 | 0 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 6 | 16 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
122 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.