Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 122 game sample- PTS
- 21.9
- SOG
- 87.6
- G
- 6.9
- A
- 15.0
- PPP
- 2.2
- HIT
- 65.3
- BLK
- 35.4
- PIM
- 24.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 122 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 122 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 122 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.06
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.79
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 0.24 | 70 | 12:05 |
| 2024-25 | 52 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 0.33 | 64 | 12:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15:31 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:29 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:54 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.2 | 4 | minus 4.2 goals above expected | 52 | 101 |
| 2024-25 | 8.6 | 8 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 40 | 106 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
101 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.