Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 83 game sample- PTS
- 29.1
- SOG
- 109.8
- G
- 12.0
- A
- 17.1
- PPP
- 4.0
- HIT
- 50.6
- BLK
- 38.9
- PIM
- 14.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 83 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 83 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 83 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.35
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.34
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.61
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 0.36 | 109 | 16:44 |
| 2024-25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 13:12 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:17 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.7 | 12 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 65 | 157 |
| 2024-25 | 0.3 | 0 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 2 | 4 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
157 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.