Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 190 game sample- PTS
- 73.3
- SOG
- 114.8
- G
- 10.2
- A
- 63.1
- PPP
- 25.6
- HIT
- 35.4
- BLK
- 131.6
- PIM
- 35.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 190 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 190 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 190 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.90
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.77
- SOG
- 1.40
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 0.43
- BLK
- 1.61
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 12 | 66 | 78 | 0.95 | 124 | 23:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 6 | 60 | 66 | 0.80 | 91 | 22:44 |
| 2023-24 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.00 | 3 | 22:43 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 0.84 | 30 | 25:27 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1.00 | 5 | 24:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:59 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 28:55 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 24:52 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 22:36 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 31:17 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24:28 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:33 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:02 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.1 | 12 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 71 | 173 |
| 2024-25 | 7.0 | 6 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 69 | 166 |
| 2023-24 | 0.3 | 0 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 2 | 4 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 48 assists, 58 points | 2 goals, 18 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 35 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 25 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
173 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.