Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 120 game sample- PTS
- 31.6
- SOG
- 92.9
- G
- 12.6
- A
- 19.0
- PPP
- 2.6
- HIT
- 33.5
- BLK
- 103.5
- PIM
- 15.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 120 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 120 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 120 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.13
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.40
- BLK
- 1.27
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 0.41 | 88 | 19:11 |
| 2024-25 | 45 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.29 | 44 | 18:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:08 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27:42 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20:29 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:06 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.6 | 13 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 61 | 131 |
| 2024-25 | 2.8 | 4 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 40 | 72 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
131 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.