Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 122 game sample- PTS
- 47.6
- SOG
- 161.5
- G
- 18.6
- A
- 29.0
- PPP
- 12.3
- HIT
- 46.3
- BLK
- 53.6
- PIM
- 33.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 122 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 122 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 122 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.15
- HIT
- 0.56
- BLK
- 0.65
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 15 | 26 | 41 | 0.62 | 138 | 18:19 |
| 2024-25 | 53 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 0.49 | 91 | 15:52 |
| 2023-24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 16:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:35 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:57 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:00 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:33 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.7 | 15 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 60 | 217 |
| 2024-25 | 12.8 | 11 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 51 | 135 |
| 2023-24 | 0.8 | 1 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 3 | 6 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
217 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.