Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 306 game sample- PTS
- 60.9
- SOG
- 167.9
- G
- 25.0
- A
- 35.8
- PPP
- 21.9
- HIT
- 136.2
- BLK
- 71.7
- PIM
- 50.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 306 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 306 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 306 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.74
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 2.05
- PPP
- 0.27
- HIT
- 1.66
- BLK
- 0.87
- PIM
- 0.61
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 30 | 43 | 73 | 0.89 | 180 | 18:32 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 18 | 33 | 51 | 0.65 | 133 | 17:21 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 30 | 50 | 0.61 | 152 | 17:56 |
| 2022-23 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.26 | 42 | 12:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0.63 | 48 | 19:56 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 15 | 19:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17:18 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:35 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:51 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:41 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:07 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:46 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:17 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 33.2 | 30 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 80 | 308 |
| 2024-25 | 20.2 | 18 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 78 | 224 |
| 2023-24 | 21.5 | 20 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 72 | 226 |
| 2022-23 | 3.9 | 4 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 27 | 61 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 30 assists, 45 points | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 28 assists, 41 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
308 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.