Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 169 game sample- PTS
- 35.6
- SOG
- 103.0
- G
- 15.9
- A
- 19.7
- PPP
- 9.0
- HIT
- 55.6
- BLK
- 65.0
- PIM
- 13.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 169 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 169 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 169 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 1.25
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.67
- BLK
- 0.79
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0.36 | 97 | 13:48 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 19 | 25 | 44 | 0.56 | 91 | 14:04 |
| 2023-24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.63 | 12 | 13:32 |
| 2022-23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 4 | 8:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:28 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:24 |
| Mar 28 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Mar 26 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:56 |
| Mar 24 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:47 |
| Mar 21 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:37 |
| Mar 19 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 |
| Mar 17 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15:51 |
| Mar 15 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:54 |
| Mar 14 | @ VAN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.5 | 12 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 64 | 157 |
| 2024-25 | 14.7 | 19 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 69 | 161 |
| 2023-24 | 1.9 | 4 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 6 | 20 |
| 2022-23 | 1.0 | 1 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 5 | 8 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
157 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.