Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 74 game sample- PTS
- 26.7
- SOG
- 81.5
- G
- 10.0
- A
- 16.7
- PPP
- 5.6
- HIT
- 121.6
- BLK
- 47.9
- PIM
- 34.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 74 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 74 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 74 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.32
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 0.99
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 1.49
- BLK
- 0.58
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 0.32 | 73 | 13:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:33 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:38 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:27 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 |
| Mar 18 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.5 | 9 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 55 | 117 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
117 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.