Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 278 game sample- PTS
- 47.0
- SOG
- 117.1
- G
- 21.2
- A
- 25.8
- PPP
- 19.9
- HIT
- 25.2
- BLK
- 23.5
- PIM
- 20.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 278 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 278 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 278 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.43
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 0.30
- BLK
- 0.28
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.48 | 69 | 14:55 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.56 | 83 | 15:38 |
| 2023-24 | 72 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 0.64 | 121 | 14:53 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 39 | 35 | 74 | 0.91 | 143 | 16:14 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 10:30 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.00 | 17 | 18:15 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 |
| Feb 25 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 |
| Feb 5 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 |
| Feb 4 | vs SEA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 |
| Feb 1 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Jan 31 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
| Jan 29 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Jan 27 | @ DET | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14:46 |
| Jan 24 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Jan 20 | vs NYR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Feb 25 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.7 | 13 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 47 | 120 |
| 2024-25 | 10.3 | 11 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 57 | 134 |
| 2023-24 | 16.7 | 22 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 63 | 197 |
| 2022-23 | 22.0 | 39 | plus 17.0 goals above expected | 71 | 210 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 13 assists, 27 points | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 30 assists, 56 points | 13 goals, 5 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
120 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Feb 25
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.