Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 73 game sample- PTS
- 24.1
- SOG
- 107.4
- G
- 13.7
- A
- 10.4
- PPP
- 8.0
- HIT
- 87.9
- BLK
- 27.9
- PIM
- 29.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 73 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 73 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 73 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.29
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.31
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 1.07
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.36
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 12 | 9 | 21 | 0.30 | 93 | 14:20 |
| 2024-25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 9:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:37 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14:51 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15:08 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.5 | 12 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 60 | 143 |
| 2024-25 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 1 | 2 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
143 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.