Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 213 game sample- PTS
- 56.1
- SOG
- 204.5
- G
- 25.7
- A
- 30.4
- PPP
- 9.5
- HIT
- 127.9
- BLK
- 51.8
- PIM
- 31.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 213 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 213 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 213 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.69
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 2.50
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.56
- BLK
- 0.63
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 0.72 | 214 | 18:54 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 31 | 23 | 54 | 0.66 | 191 | 17:29 |
| 2023-24 | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0.55 | 115 | 15:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15:41 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21:25 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:08 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:08 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:06 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21:43 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.6 | 24 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 79 | 317 |
| 2024-25 | 21.6 | 31 | plus 9.4 goals above expected | 79 | 280 |
| 2023-24 | 12.6 | 12 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 47 | 170 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 26 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 20 assists, 47 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
317 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.