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Zach Metsa

Zach Metsa

BUF·DJersey number #73
Latest captured market
Apr 2 · 7:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 45 game sample
PTS
13.3
SOG
47.4
G
5.7
A
7.6
PPP
2.0
HIT
11.1
BLK
58.5
PIM
15.1

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 45 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among defencemen · 508 ranked

Production

Style & role

Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 45 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 45 games incl. playoffs
PTS
0.16
G
0.07
A
0.09
SOG
0.56
PPP
0.02
HIT
0.11
BLK
0.71
PIM
0.18

Season totals

regular season
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-26432460.142410:58

Playoffs

postseason only
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-2621010.5017:52

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Apr 2 lineG 1/10PPP 1/10
DateOppSOGGAPPPHITBLKPIMTOI
May 18vs MTLPO00000003:25
May 16@ MTLPO110101012:19
Apr 15vs DAL000001014:43
Apr 9vs CBJ000000019:26
Apr 4@ WSH000001015:15
Apr 2@ OTT100001016:04
Mar 31vs NYI100000014:04
Mar 22@ ANA000002012:13
Mar 21@ LAK101012213:59
Mar 19@ SJS001001015:48

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season
SeasonxGGGAxGPAtt
2025-261.22plus 0.8 goals above expected2635

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season
SeasonEven strengthPower playShorthanded
2025-262 goals, 4 assists, 6 points0-0-00-0-0

Shot locations

35 attempts · 2 goals · 2025-26
Missed the net (11)Shot on goal (22)Goal (2)

Markets · Apr 2

modeled projections
G
Anytime goal
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
1%
A
Assists
No line posted.
PPP
Power-play points
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
3%
HITS
Hits
No line posted.
BLK
Blocked shots
No line posted.
PIM
Penalty minutes
No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.