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Nikolas Matinpalo

Nikolas Matinpalo

OTT·DJersey number #33
vsBUF
Latest captured market
Apr 2 · 7:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 105 game sample
PTS
7.7
SOG
65.1
G
0.7
A
7.0
PPP
0.1
HIT
70.4
BLK
84.4
PIM
30.4

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 105 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among defencemen · 508 ranked

Production

Style & role

Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 105 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 105 games incl. playoffs
PTS
0.09
G
0.01
A
0.08
SOG
0.78
PPP
0.00
HIT
0.85
BLK
1.03
PIM
0.37

Season totals

regular season
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-26500550.103715:38
2024-25411340.104312:37
2023-2440000.0027:01

Playoffs

postseason only
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-2640000.00120:53
2024-2560000.00313:04

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Apr 2 lineG 0/10PPP 0/10
DateOppSOGGAPPPHITBLKPIMTOI
Apr 25vs CARPO100013216:01
Apr 23vs CARPO000013019:21
Apr 20@ CARPO000001031:03
Apr 18@ CARPO000010017:08
Apr 15vs TOR000001018:39
Apr 12@ NJD000011220:35
Apr 11@ NYI000001010:42
Apr 9vs FLA100041017:09
Apr 7vs TBL200011018:55
Apr 5vs CAR000001015:59

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season
SeasonxGGGAxGPAtt
2025-261.80minus 1.8 goals above expected3560
2024-251.61minus 0.6 goals above expected2863
2023-240.00minus 0.0 goals above expected33

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season
SeasonEven strengthPower playShorthanded
2025-260 goals, 4 assists, 4 points0-0-00 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
2024-251 goal, 3 assists, 4 points0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2023-240 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0-0-00-0-0

Shot locations

60 attempts · 0 goals · 2025-26
Missed the net (23)Shot on goal (37)Goal (0)

Markets · Apr 2

modeled projections
G
Anytime goal
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
A
Assists
No line posted.
PPP
Power-play points
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
4%
HITS
Hits
No line posted.
BLK
Blocked shots
No line posted.
PIM
Penalty minutes
No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.