Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 82 game sample- PTS
- 58.7
- SOG
- 220.9
- G
- 22.9
- A
- 35.9
- PPP
- 17.9
- HIT
- 40.7
- BLK
- 110.5
- PIM
- 38.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 82 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 82 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 82 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 2.71
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 0.49
- BLK
- 1.35
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 23 | 36 | 59 | 0.72 | 222 | 24:41 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:13 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 28:01 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:56 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:50 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27:11 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 28:43 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 29:40 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:51 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.3 | 23 | plus 6.7 goals above expected | 80 | 306 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
306 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.