Sat, Dec 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning
Before the game
Away · PIT
- 2025-26 record
- 41–25–16
- rank
- 15of 32
Home · TBL
- 2025-26 record
- 50–26–6
- rank
- 6of 32
Expected goals per game, 2025-26
| Per game | PIT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| for | 3.37 | 3.58 |
| against | 3.33 | 3.02 |
The model’s expected goals on each club’s open-play attempts, per game over 82 and 82 games. Last season’s, as the records are.
Pre-game win chance
PIT 42%TBL 58%
The model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).
The box score appears here after the game.