Sat, Dec 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Before the game
Away · TBL
- 2025-26 record
- 50–26–6
- rank
- 6of 32
Home · TOR
- 2025-26 record
- 32–36–14
- rank
- 31of 32
Expected goals per game, 2025-26
| Per game | TBL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| for | 3.58 | 3.02 |
| against | 3.02 | 3.64 |
The model’s expected goals on each club’s open-play attempts, per game over 82 and 82 games. Last season’s, as the records are.
Pre-game win chance
TBL 55%TOR 45%
The model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).
The box score appears here after the game.