Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 463 game sample- PTS
- 38.1
- SOG
- 124.7
- G
- 19.0
- A
- 19.0
- PPP
- 3.9
- HIT
- 202.1
- BLK
- 48.6
- PIM
- 32.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 463 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 463 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 463 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.52
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 2.47
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.40
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 20 | 16 | 36 | 0.48 | 107 | 16:11 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 0.48 | 107 | 15:26 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 0.38 | 123 | 15:23 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 0.42 | 124 | 16:16 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 17 | 19 | 36 | 0.46 | 146 | 16:38 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 0.63 | 36 | 18:00 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 18 | 16:55 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 28 | 16:40 |
| 2022-23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.53 | 30 | 17:44 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.43 | 19 | 16:24 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:34 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16:54 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:05 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.8 | 20 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 67 | 184 |
| 2024-25 | 13.6 | 13 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 65 | 158 |
| 2023-24 | 14.6 | 10 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 69 | 175 |
| 2022-23 | 16.3 | 17 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 72 | 171 |
| 2021-22 | 19.6 | 17 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 77 | 207 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 23 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 18 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
184 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.