Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 453 game sample- PTS
- 49.1
- SOG
- 130.2
- G
- 18.3
- A
- 30.8
- PPP
- 12.1
- HIT
- 127.5
- BLK
- 41.3
- PIM
- 71.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 453 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 453 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 453 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.22
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 1.59
- PPP
- 0.15
- HIT
- 1.56
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.87
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 0.60 | 72 | 13:17 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 0.61 | 136 | 15:18 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 21 | 39 | 60 | 0.73 | 164 | 15:07 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 33 | 45 | 78 | 0.95 | 190 | 15:47 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 18 | 28 | 46 | 0.56 | 182 | 16:45 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 13:49 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 25 | 13:06 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 0.79 | 36 | 17:08 |
| 2022-23 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.65 | 37 | 16:20 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 14 | 17:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:26 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:56 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:47 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:24 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10:31 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.4 | 15 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 47 | 103 |
| 2024-25 | 18.4 | 16 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 71 | 195 |
| 2023-24 | 20.7 | 21 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 69 | 224 |
| 2022-23 | 25.3 | 33 | plus 7.7 goals above expected | 76 | 251 |
| 2021-22 | 23.0 | 18 | minus 5.0 goals above expected | 78 | 250 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 24 assists, 39 points | 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 22 assists, 35 points | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 27 assists, 45 points | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 20 assists, 34 points | 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
103 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.