Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 368 game sample- PTS
- 38.3
- SOG
- 121.0
- G
- 16.9
- A
- 21.4
- PPP
- 9.5
- HIT
- 29.3
- BLK
- 27.6
- PIM
- 20.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 368 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 368 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 368 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.47
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.35
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 15 | 16 | 31 | 0.43 | 99 | 11:45 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 0.51 | 85 | 12:24 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 0.54 | 142 | 13:31 |
| 2022-23 | 61 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 0.48 | 119 | 15:21 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 24 | 14 | 38 | 0.46 | 186 | 16:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.45 | 16 | 11:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9:00 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:40 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:18 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 |
| Mar 27 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.3 | 15 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 63 | 164 |
| 2024-25 | 12.2 | 16 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 55 | 124 |
| 2023-24 | 19.3 | 11 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 65 | 189 |
| 2022-23 | 13.9 | 12 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 58 | 162 |
| 2021-22 | 22.5 | 24 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 76 | 245 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 7 goals, 4 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 14 assists, 29 points | 9 goals, 0 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
164 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.