Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 351 game sample- PTS
- 40.2
- SOG
- 138.4
- G
- 18.5
- A
- 21.6
- PPP
- 13.3
- HIT
- 118.9
- BLK
- 26.0
- PIM
- 47.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 351 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 351 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 351 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.69
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 1.45
- BLK
- 0.31
- PIM
- 0.58
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 0.43 | 93 | 13:34 |
| 2024-25 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 0.37 | 71 | 14:01 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 0.62 | 151 | 15:38 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 24 | 32 | 56 | 0.68 | 195 | 16:55 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 27 | 30 | 57 | 0.85 | 177 | 16:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | 9 | 13:31 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 1.08 | 42 | 19:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:37 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13:52 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:17 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.7 | 13 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 54 | 129 |
| 2024-25 | 8.2 | 9 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 40 | 99 |
| 2023-24 | 16.2 | 17 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 69 | 200 |
| 2022-23 | 24.0 | 24 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 80 | 267 |
| 2021-22 | 19.5 | 27 | plus 7.5 goals above expected | 63 | 231 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 16 assists, 34 points | 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
129 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.