Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 347 game sample- PTS
- 70.1
- SOG
- 214.7
- G
- 22.5
- A
- 47.6
- PPP
- 26.5
- HIT
- 23.4
- BLK
- 27.4
- PIM
- 18.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 347 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 347 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 347 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.86
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.58
- SOG
- 2.63
- PPP
- 0.32
- HIT
- 0.28
- BLK
- 0.33
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 16 | 41 | 57 | 0.85 | 169 | 17:41 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 21 | 38 | 59 | 0.82 | 175 | 17:59 |
| 2023-24 | 50 | 20 | 27 | 47 | 0.94 | 147 | 18:23 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 21 | 36 | 57 | 0.78 | 227 | 19:19 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 26 | 66 | 92 | 1.18 | 287 | 21:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 23 | 17:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:09 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:06 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.7 | 16 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 64 | 245 |
| 2024-25 | 17.5 | 21 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 71 | 254 |
| 2023-24 | 14.6 | 20 | plus 5.4 goals above expected | 49 | 194 |
| 2022-23 | 19.1 | 21 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 73 | 296 |
| 2021-22 | 26.0 | 26 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 78 | 371 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 14 assists, 32 points | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 18 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 44 assists, 61 points | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
245 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.