Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 382 game sample- PTS
- 59.0
- SOG
- 176.8
- G
- 11.3
- A
- 47.7
- PPP
- 16.8
- HIT
- 51.0
- BLK
- 135.7
- PIM
- 31.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 382 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 382 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 382 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.72
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.58
- SOG
- 2.16
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.62
- BLK
- 1.66
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 14 | 46 | 60 | 0.85 | 153 | 23:10 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 5 | 46 | 51 | 0.65 | 167 | 23:34 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 10 | 42 | 52 | 0.63 | 176 | 25:53 |
| 2022-23 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 0.73 | 124 | 23:23 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 17 | 54 | 71 | 0.91 | 195 | 23:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.50 | 25 | 24:02 |
| 2024-25 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 13 | 24:15 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 14 | 29:11 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | 12 | 24:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:02 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 26:16 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:39 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24:53 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24:43 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:29 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:34 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25:46 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:05 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.8 | 14 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 71 | 244 |
| 2024-25 | 10.4 | 5 | minus 5.4 goals above expected | 75 | 256 |
| 2023-24 | 11.9 | 10 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 78 | 274 |
| 2022-23 | 8.7 | 9 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 40 | 193 |
| 2021-22 | 12.9 | 17 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 75 | 278 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 34 assists, 46 points | 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 33 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 27 assists, 31 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 33 assists, 43 points | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
244 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.