Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 402 game sample- PTS
- 44.4
- SOG
- 124.2
- G
- 15.7
- A
- 28.7
- PPP
- 9.3
- HIT
- 52.6
- BLK
- 26.7
- PIM
- 13.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 402 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 402 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 402 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.54
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.51
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.64
- BLK
- 0.32
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 15 | 34 | 49 | 0.65 | 106 | 15:25 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 0.47 | 121 | 16:23 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 0.38 | 112 | 15:53 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 19 | 27 | 46 | 0.58 | 137 | 16:29 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 0.42 | 111 | 16:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | 18 | 15:06 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 14:02 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 14 | 20:18 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 9 | 15:01 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:15 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:40 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21:49 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.6 | 15 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 64 | 153 |
| 2024-25 | 12.5 | 11 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 67 | 172 |
| 2023-24 | 12.4 | 11 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 65 | 171 |
| 2022-23 | 15.6 | 18 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 73 | 175 |
| 2021-22 | 12.5 | 9 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 63 | 145 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 27 assists, 39 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 14 assists, 26 points | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
153 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.