Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 402 game sample- PTS
- 66.8
- SOG
- 160.3
- G
- 24.3
- A
- 42.5
- PPP
- 19.9
- HIT
- 21.2
- BLK
- 65.6
- PIM
- 22.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 402 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 402 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 402 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.82
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.52
- SOG
- 1.96
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 0.25
- BLK
- 0.80
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 25 | 49 | 74 | 0.91 | 154 | 20:23 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 21 | 32 | 53 | 0.67 | 151 | 18:59 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 26 | 43 | 69 | 0.84 | 180 | 19:46 |
| 2022-23 | 53 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 0.57 | 102 | 17:56 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 21 | 37 | 58 | 0.74 | 168 | 19:05 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 12 | 22:32 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.82 | 21 | 19:49 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 1.00 | 34 | 21:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:55 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 21:35 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:55 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:10 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:26 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:39 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:29 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26.0 | 25 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 76 | 230 |
| 2024-25 | 25.7 | 21 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 72 | 227 |
| 2023-24 | 27.0 | 26 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 76 | 248 |
| 2022-23 | 12.7 | 16 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 45 | 130 |
| 2021-22 | 23.2 | 21 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 76 | 215 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 33 assists, 51 points | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 24 assists, 36 points | 9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 29 assists, 41 points | 14 goals, 14 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 10 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 29 assists, 41 points | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
230 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.