Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 415 game sample- PTS
- 69.2
- SOG
- 146.3
- G
- 24.7
- A
- 44.4
- PPP
- 24.5
- HIT
- 38.6
- BLK
- 36.0
- PIM
- 18.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 415 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 415 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 415 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.85
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 1.79
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 0.47
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 57 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.79 | 89 | 16:31 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 30 | 52 | 82 | 1.00 | 152 | 17:08 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 25 | 40 | 65 | 0.81 | 172 | 16:46 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 22 | 34 | 56 | 0.79 | 168 | 18:19 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 43 | 43 | 86 | 1.10 | 228 | 19:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1.50 | 9 | 20:55 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.33 | 23 | 16:36 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.32 | 27 | 17:10 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.00 | 8 | 20:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:03 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:52 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:33 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:39 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:17 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:36 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.1 | 16 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 49 | 133 |
| 2024-25 | 21.5 | 30 | plus 8.5 goals above expected | 74 | 223 |
| 2023-24 | 24.2 | 25 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 77 | 257 |
| 2022-23 | 21.8 | 22 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 69 | 238 |
| 2021-22 | 33.1 | 43 | plus 9.9 goals above expected | 78 | 318 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 22 goals, 33 assists, 55 points | 8 goals, 19 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 30 assists, 49 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 26 assists, 43 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points | 16 goals, 13 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
133 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.