Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 438 game sample- PTS
- 22.1
- SOG
- 95.0
- G
- 5.0
- A
- 17.0
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 149.3
- BLK
- 181.8
- PIM
- 42.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 438 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 438 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 438 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.16
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.82
- BLK
- 2.23
- PIM
- 0.51
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 63 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.19 | 81 | 20:31 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 0.24 | 97 | 20:07 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 4 | 22 | 26 | 0.32 | 86 | 19:21 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 0.21 | 89 | 19:50 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 0.26 | 85 | 19:42 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0.48 | 19 | 20:49 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.36 | 10 | 21:14 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.71 | 14 | 21:15 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.19 | 12 | 19:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 20:29 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20:46 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 35:47 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:13 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:56 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 23:45 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:13 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 25:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.5 | 5 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 54 | 132 |
| 2024-25 | 4.3 | 5 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 71 | 150 |
| 2023-24 | 3.7 | 4 | plus 0.3 goals above expected | 63 | 123 |
| 2022-23 | 5.0 | 1 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 64 | 130 |
| 2021-22 | 4.0 | 3 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 58 | 133 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 21 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 14 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 14 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
132 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.