Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 421 game sample- PTS
- 34.2
- SOG
- 110.8
- G
- 4.8
- A
- 29.4
- PPP
- 10.7
- HIT
- 126.3
- BLK
- 76.5
- PIM
- 41.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 421 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 421 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 421 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 1.35
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 1.54
- BLK
- 0.93
- PIM
- 0.51
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 3 | 34 | 37 | 0.45 | 91 | 21:12 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 0.37 | 117 | 20:00 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 0.32 | 129 | 17:19 |
| 2022-23 | 66 | 7 | 29 | 36 | 0.55 | 124 | 22:33 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 0.46 | 127 | 20:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.27 | 21 | 21:42 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.55 | 22 | 20:56 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1.14 | 11 | 23:03 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 3 | 22:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20:44 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:24 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20:48 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 22:41 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:57 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.2 | 3 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 69 | 149 |
| 2024-25 | 7.2 | 6 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 69 | 197 |
| 2023-24 | 7.3 | 6 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 72 | 200 |
| 2022-23 | 7.3 | 7 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 59 | 162 |
| 2021-22 | 7.1 | 12 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 72 | 174 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 17 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 21 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 5 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 21 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
149 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.