Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 434 game sample- PTS
- 41.0
- SOG
- 147.6
- G
- 8.2
- A
- 32.8
- PPP
- 4.4
- HIT
- 75.5
- BLK
- 121.9
- PIM
- 35.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 434 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 434 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 434 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 1.80
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.92
- BLK
- 1.49
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 6 | 35 | 41 | 0.50 | 131 | 20:35 |
| 2024-25 | 65 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 0.51 | 143 | 22:12 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 11 | 34 | 45 | 0.57 | 177 | 21:03 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 0.41 | 135 | 21:28 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 0.41 | 145 | 23:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 6 | 19:26 |
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 13 | 21:35 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.40 | 45 | 21:58 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.58 | 20 | 21:53 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 8 | 22:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:33 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23:00 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:01 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 22:21 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:10 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.8 | 6 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 75 | 205 |
| 2024-25 | 8.9 | 9 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 62 | 212 |
| 2023-24 | 11.8 | 11 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 76 | 249 |
| 2022-23 | 8.6 | 9 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 71 | 196 |
| 2021-22 | 8.8 | 6 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 72 | 213 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 32 assists, 38 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 33 assists, 41 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 18 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
205 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.