Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 400 game sample- PTS
- 16.1
- SOG
- 109.1
- G
- 5.0
- A
- 11.2
- PPP
- 0.4
- HIT
- 159.3
- BLK
- 157.9
- PIM
- 69.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 400 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 400 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 400 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.20
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 1.33
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.95
- BLK
- 1.93
- PIM
- 0.85
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.18 | 103 | 20:50 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.16 | 109 | 21:14 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 0.26 | 107 | 19:47 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 0.25 | 110 | 20:37 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0.35 | 143 | 22:51 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 17 | 17:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:08 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:00 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:25 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 22:24 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:39 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15:43 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20:44 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 19:29 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.5 | 5 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 70 | 161 |
| 2024-25 | 4.3 | 4 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 73 | 162 |
| 2023-24 | 5.1 | 5 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 69 | 153 |
| 2022-23 | 5.0 | 5 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 63 | 155 |
| 2021-22 | 6.0 | 9 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 64 | 177 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
161 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.