Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 409 game sample- PTS
- 54.4
- SOG
- 209.2
- G
- 25.6
- A
- 28.8
- PPP
- 16.6
- HIT
- 58.1
- BLK
- 28.6
- PIM
- 13.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 409 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 409 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 409 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 2.56
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 0.71
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.16
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 19 | 30 | 49 | 0.62 | 172 | 14:58 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 30 | 24 | 54 | 0.69 | 233 | 16:56 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 33 | 22 | 55 | 0.70 | 229 | 16:58 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 34 | 39 | 73 | 0.89 | 268 | 16:37 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 0.66 | 195 | 16:18 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 8 | 14:05 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.42 | 33 | 16:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:24 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 |
| Mar 30 | vs STL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.8 | 19 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 77 | 252 |
| 2024-25 | 26.8 | 30 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 75 | 317 |
| 2023-24 | 29.2 | 33 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 79 | 332 |
| 2022-23 | 29.3 | 34 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 81 | 365 |
| 2021-22 | 22.8 | 20 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 74 | 258 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 21 assists, 34 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 24 goals, 15 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 22 goals, 15 assists, 37 points | 11 goals, 7 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 24 assists, 48 points | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points | 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
252 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.