Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 40.5
- SOG
- 154.8
- G
- 11.6
- A
- 28.8
- PPP
- 10.3
- HIT
- 90.4
- BLK
- 131.6
- PIM
- 42.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.89
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 1.10
- BLK
- 1.61
- PIM
- 0.52
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 0.51 | 148 | 22:01 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 4 | 28 | 32 | 0.41 | 124 | 22:27 |
| 2023-24 | 60 | 2 | 28 | 30 | 0.50 | 132 | 21:58 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 11 | 39 | 50 | 0.61 | 196 | 23:23 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 0.62 | 167 | 23:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 12 | 23:43 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.67 | 29 | 25:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:31 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:40 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:40 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:49 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Mar 27 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 20:11 |
| Mar 24 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.6 | 16 | plus 7.4 goals above expected | 72 | 205 |
| 2024-25 | 6.4 | 4 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 67 | 181 |
| 2023-24 | 6.8 | 2 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 57 | 177 |
| 2022-23 | 11.7 | 11 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 76 | 253 |
| 2021-22 | 9.5 | 16 | plus 6.5 goals above expected | 74 | 219 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 21 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 31 assists, 40 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 25 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
205 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.