Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 350 game sample- PTS
- 22.3
- SOG
- 128.9
- G
- 11.8
- A
- 10.4
- PPP
- 1.4
- HIT
- 142.3
- BLK
- 43.1
- PIM
- 40.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 350 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 350 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 350 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.27
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.57
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.74
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 61 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.15 | 77 | 10:56 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.29 | 115 | 12:19 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 0.59 | 165 | 17:26 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 0.37 | 145 | 16:12 |
| 2021-22 | 57 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0.23 | 81 | 10:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | 16 | 13:34 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9:00 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:16 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:59 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:08 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7:04 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.1 | 6 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 53 | 114 |
| 2024-25 | 12.1 | 8 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 62 | 161 |
| 2023-24 | 19.2 | 22 | plus 2.8 goals above expected | 72 | 246 |
| 2022-23 | 17.7 | 17 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 73 | 211 |
| 2021-22 | 8.8 | 7 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 48 | 107 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 12 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
114 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.