Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 429 game sample- PTS
- 47.8
- SOG
- 159.4
- G
- 21.0
- A
- 26.8
- PPP
- 11.9
- HIT
- 76.6
- BLK
- 39.5
- PIM
- 10.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 429 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 429 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 429 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 1.95
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.93
- BLK
- 0.48
- PIM
- 0.13
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 23 | 24 | 47 | 0.63 | 148 | 14:56 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.41 | 133 | 14:47 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 23 | 32 | 55 | 0.72 | 155 | 15:44 |
| 2022-23 | 69 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 0.72 | 169 | 16:48 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 34 | 48 | 82 | 1.09 | 230 | 16:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.45 | 18 | 14:12 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.38 | 47 | 13:22 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.57 | 19 | 15:13 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.75 | 32 | 16:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:03 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:22 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:27 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:25 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:25 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:01 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.8 | 23 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 71 | 213 |
| 2024-25 | 16.1 | 11 | minus 5.1 goals above expected | 70 | 199 |
| 2023-24 | 16.3 | 23 | plus 6.7 goals above expected | 69 | 218 |
| 2022-23 | 20.8 | 18 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 65 | 234 |
| 2021-22 | 29.1 | 34 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 73 | 305 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 16 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 26 assists, 46 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 29 goals, 31 assists, 60 points | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
213 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.