Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 315 game sample- PTS
- 45.2
- SOG
- 165.6
- G
- 21.3
- A
- 23.9
- PPP
- 8.3
- HIT
- 53.6
- BLK
- 51.9
- PIM
- 20.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 315 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 315 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 315 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.55
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 2.02
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.65
- BLK
- 0.63
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 0.52 | 82 | 16:08 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 26 | 23 | 49 | 0.60 | 194 | 17:53 |
| 2023-24 | 62 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 0.48 | 117 | 16:22 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 21 | 19 | 40 | 0.56 | 167 | 17:25 |
| 2021-22 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 0.62 | 101 | 18:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.71 | 41 | 18:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:19 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:08 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:00 |
| Mar 7 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 |
| Mar 4 | vs STL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.0 | 11 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 47 | 120 |
| 2024-25 | 24.8 | 26 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 76 | 294 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 13 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 58 | 162 |
| 2022-23 | 22.5 | 21 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 66 | 221 |
| 2021-22 | 10.4 | 8 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 35 | 140 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 19 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 7 goals, 3 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 6 goals, 2 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 12 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
120 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.