Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 403 game sample- PTS
- 60.6
- SOG
- 156.8
- G
- 22.7
- A
- 37.9
- PPP
- 20.6
- HIT
- 74.2
- BLK
- 59.3
- PIM
- 28.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 403 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 403 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 403 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.74
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.46
- SOG
- 1.91
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 0.90
- BLK
- 0.72
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 58 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 0.71 | 117 | 19:10 |
| 2024-25 | 83 | 22 | 44 | 66 | 0.80 | 169 | 19:27 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 12 | 48 | 60 | 0.87 | 134 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 10 | 31 | 41 | 0.52 | 121 | 17:50 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 11 | 53 | 64 | 0.80 | 117 | 20:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.83 | 20 | 19:12 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.56 | 29 | 17:27 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.75 | 10 | 21:52 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:09 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:55 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:07 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:17 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:48 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:35 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20:37 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.8 | 19 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 53 | 180 |
| 2024-25 | 18.7 | 22 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 83 | 243 |
| 2023-24 | 15.0 | 12 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 64 | 187 |
| 2022-23 | 18.6 | 10 | minus 8.6 goals above expected | 70 | 172 |
| 2021-22 | 13.7 | 11 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 69 | 165 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 30 assists, 46 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 25 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 22 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 28 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 25 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
180 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.