Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 252 game sample- PTS
- 37.0
- SOG
- 118.3
- G
- 11.8
- A
- 25.1
- PPP
- 11.7
- HIT
- 69.6
- BLK
- 96.6
- PIM
- 36.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 252 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 252 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 252 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.44
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.84
- BLK
- 1.18
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 56 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 0.48 | 79 | 20:28 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.36 | 19 | 17:14 |
| 2023-24 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.36 | 14 | 20:33 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 0.49 | 112 | 20:37 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 6 | 41 | 47 | 0.64 | 139 | 22:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.21 | 23 | 19:08 |
| 2022-23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1.00 | 8 | 16:48 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 5 | 19:00 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:49 |
| Mar 24 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:07 |
| Mar 21 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 |
| Mar 17 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:50 |
| Mar 15 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 |
| Mar 14 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:48 |
| Mar 12 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:40 |
| Mar 10 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Mar 7 | vs NYI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.9 | 10 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 49 | 138 |
| 2024-25 | 1.0 | 1 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 11 | 26 |
| 2023-24 | 0.8 | 0 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 12 | 25 |
| 2022-23 | 7.6 | 10 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 59 | 171 |
| 2021-22 | 9.2 | 6 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 70 | 209 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 19 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
138 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.