Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 392 game sample- PTS
- 39.7
- SOG
- 105.6
- G
- 16.3
- A
- 23.4
- PPP
- 3.4
- HIT
- 147.9
- BLK
- 61.7
- PIM
- 12.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 392 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 392 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 392 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.48
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.29
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.81
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.15
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 0.47 | 81 | 15:40 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 14 | 28 | 42 | 0.53 | 120 | 17:00 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.40 | 101 | 15:55 |
| 2022-23 | 70 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 0.57 | 123 | 17:37 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 18 | 21 | 39 | 0.51 | 126 | 17:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 6 | 17:52 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 8 | 16:48 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:48 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:25 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.6 | 17 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 58 | 128 |
| 2024-25 | 18.1 | 14 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 67 | 181 |
| 2023-24 | 13.3 | 11 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 66 | 151 |
| 2022-23 | 16.7 | 13 | minus 3.7 goals above expected | 63 | 173 |
| 2021-22 | 16.1 | 18 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 71 | 169 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 13 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 22 assists, 33 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 23 assists, 28 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
128 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.