Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 278 game sample- PTS
- 49.6
- SOG
- 185.9
- G
- 20.4
- A
- 29.1
- PPP
- 6.5
- HIT
- 168.0
- BLK
- 81.2
- PIM
- 46.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 278 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 278 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 278 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.61
- G
- 0.25
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.27
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 2.06
- BLK
- 0.99
- PIM
- 0.57
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 0.57 | 132 | 16:05 |
| 2024-25 | 26 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0.73 | 70 | 17:59 |
| 2023-24 | 58 | 22 | 13 | 35 | 0.60 | 155 | 20:06 |
| 2022-23 | 68 | 26 | 19 | 45 | 0.66 | 214 | 20:13 |
| 2021-22 | 59 | 23 | 21 | 44 | 0.75 | 160 | 20:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18:24 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:19 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 18:58 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:43 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.6 | 13 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 63 | 214 |
| 2024-25 | 11.3 | 7 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 25 | 109 |
| 2023-24 | 20.2 | 22 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 55 | 237 |
| 2022-23 | 30.4 | 26 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 68 | 316 |
| 2021-22 | 18.7 | 23 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 57 | 221 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 10 assists, 26 points | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 15 assists, 34 points | 7 goals, 4 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points | 8 goals, 2 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
214 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.