Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 456 game sample- PTS
- 65.1
- SOG
- 163.3
- G
- 22.5
- A
- 42.6
- PPP
- 29.8
- HIT
- 46.2
- BLK
- 43.2
- PIM
- 26.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 456 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 456 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 456 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.80
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.52
- SOG
- 1.99
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 0.56
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 20 | 36 | 56 | 0.78 | 133 | 19:04 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 0.63 | 164 | 18:58 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 18 | 49 | 67 | 0.84 | 183 | 19:37 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 37 | 67 | 104 | 1.27 | 201 | 19:48 |
| 2021-22 | 63 | 11 | 39 | 50 | 0.79 | 154 | 19:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 7 | 17:46 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.91 | 48 | 19:35 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 0.88 | 37 | 20:19 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 0.92 | 23 | 20:08 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.88 | 35 | 20:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15:57 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:39 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:16 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:50 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.2 | 20 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 69 | 201 |
| 2024-25 | 22.5 | 20 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 74 | 231 |
| 2023-24 | 25.3 | 18 | minus 7.3 goals above expected | 77 | 264 |
| 2022-23 | 31.2 | 37 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 76 | 266 |
| 2021-22 | 17.4 | 11 | minus 6.4 goals above expected | 56 | 184 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 24 assists, 38 points | 4 goals, 22 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 26 assists, 47 points | 15 goals, 38 assists, 53 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 22 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
Shot locations
201 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.