Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 270 game sample- PTS
- 40.5
- SOG
- 150.4
- G
- 13.1
- A
- 27.4
- PPP
- 2.8
- HIT
- 98.3
- BLK
- 44.5
- PIM
- 37.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 270 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 270 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 270 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 1.84
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 1.20
- BLK
- 0.54
- PIM
- 0.45
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 0.46 | 119 | 16:39 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 15 | 30 | 45 | 0.57 | 155 | 17:17 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 0.51 | 192 | 17:49 |
| 2021-22 | 29 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.59 | 79 | 20:23 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.40 | 22 | 17:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20:32 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18:43 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:51 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:10 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16:37 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.5 | 12 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 71 | 182 |
| 2024-25 | 19.6 | 15 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 72 | 206 |
| 2023-24 | 18.1 | 10 | minus 8.1 goals above expected | 72 | 248 |
| 2021-22 | 8.4 | 6 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 29 | 108 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 27 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
182 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.