Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 330 game sample- PTS
- 26.6
- SOG
- 112.6
- G
- 5.7
- A
- 20.9
- PPP
- 1.2
- HIT
- 29.6
- BLK
- 170.9
- PIM
- 25.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 330 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 330 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 330 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.32
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.37
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.35
- BLK
- 2.09
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.29 | 76 | 20:17 |
| 2024-25 | 50 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 0.40 | 71 | 22:57 |
| 2023-24 | 62 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 0.44 | 117 | 23:22 |
| 2022-23 | 60 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 0.23 | 90 | 22:52 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 0.41 | 126 | 23:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 6 | 19:41 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 4 | 24:47 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 9 | 25:47 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 11 | 22:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7:22 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:42 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 28:41 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17:06 |
| Apr 18 | @ DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19:35 |
| Apr 14 | vs ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:08 |
| Apr 11 | @ NSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:50 |
| Apr 9 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:35 |
| Apr 7 | vs SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:59 |
| Apr 5 | @ DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:17 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2.0 | 4 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 54 | 105 |
| 2024-25 | 2.0 | 4 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 41 | 99 |
| 2023-24 | 6.1 | 7 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 58 | 160 |
| 2022-23 | 4.1 | 3 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 53 | 125 |
| 2021-22 | 5.4 | 5 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 66 | 157 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
105 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.