Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 325 game sample- PTS
- 29.3
- SOG
- 116.5
- G
- 14.2
- A
- 15.1
- PPP
- 1.7
- HIT
- 90.5
- BLK
- 44.3
- PIM
- 33.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 325 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 325 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 325 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.36
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.42
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.10
- BLK
- 0.54
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.37 | 92 | 14:04 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 0.36 | 104 | 14:18 |
| 2023-24 | 66 | 17 | 8 | 25 | 0.38 | 139 | 15:33 |
| 2022-23 | 43 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0.33 | 69 | 14:57 |
| 2021-22 | 60 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.23 | 103 | 13:43 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 12:43 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 4 | 12:24 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:08 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13:10 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:27 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:44 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
| Apr 4 | vs TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.0 | 13 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 59 | 137 |
| 2024-25 | 13.8 | 11 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 70 | 157 |
| 2023-24 | 11.9 | 17 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 59 | 181 |
| 2022-23 | 9.0 | 7 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 40 | 99 |
| 2021-22 | 11.0 | 6 | minus 5.0 goals above expected | 50 | 135 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 8 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
137 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.