Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 403 game sample- PTS
- 53.5
- SOG
- 211.5
- G
- 23.6
- A
- 29.9
- PPP
- 16.2
- HIT
- 97.5
- BLK
- 19.0
- PIM
- 38.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 403 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 403 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 403 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.59
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 1.19
- BLK
- 0.23
- PIM
- 0.47
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 12 | 19 | 31 | 0.50 | 132 | 16:43 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 21 | 35 | 56 | 0.72 | 206 | 17:59 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 42 | 27 | 69 | 0.84 | 266 | 17:53 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 0.75 | 234 | 17:08 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 0.87 | 251 | 17:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.57 | 25 | 18:44 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 1.14 | 80 | 17:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:13 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:12 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:07 |
| Mar 26 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.5 | 12 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 61 | 203 |
| 2024-25 | 24.6 | 21 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 74 | 277 |
| 2023-24 | 30.1 | 42 | plus 11.9 goals above expected | 80 | 355 |
| 2022-23 | 24.7 | 28 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 75 | 319 |
| 2021-22 | 26.6 | 30 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 76 | 331 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 16 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 19 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 33 goals, 18 assists, 51 points | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 21 assists, 46 points | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
203 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.