Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 338 game sample- PTS
- 32.8
- SOG
- 126.1
- G
- 6.3
- A
- 26.4
- PPP
- 5.7
- HIT
- 34.1
- BLK
- 117.5
- PIM
- 66.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 338 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 338 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 338 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.40
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.54
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 0.41
- BLK
- 1.44
- PIM
- 0.81
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 67 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 0.39 | 100 | 21:37 |
| 2024-25 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.41 | 35 | 20:52 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 0.36 | 99 | 23:17 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 10 | 43 | 53 | 0.66 | 158 | 23:11 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 0.38 | 142 | 22:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 6 | 22:52 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.31 | 17 | 22:20 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 21:40 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 21:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23:13 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21:54 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:38 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:37 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 27:40 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:06 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:47 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.1 | 5 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 59 | 148 |
| 2024-25 | 1.8 | 3 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 15 | 47 |
| 2023-24 | 5.7 | 3 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 57 | 138 |
| 2022-23 | 9.4 | 10 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 75 | 203 |
| 2021-22 | 7.2 | 5 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 66 | 201 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 19 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 27 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 16 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
148 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.