Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 409 game sample- PTS
- 47.3
- SOG
- 117.4
- G
- 16.9
- A
- 30.4
- PPP
- 21.0
- HIT
- 23.6
- BLK
- 38.2
- PIM
- 10.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 409 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 409 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 409 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.58
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.43
- PPP
- 0.26
- HIT
- 0.28
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.12
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 0.47 | 89 | 17:45 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 15 | 43 | 58 | 0.71 | 111 | 17:04 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 0.70 | 142 | 16:24 |
| 2022-23 | 68 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 0.54 | 144 | 16:55 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 22 | 43 | 65 | 0.84 | 202 | 17:42 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.55 | 18 | 18:08 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 9 | 18:46 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.79 | 34 | 16:54 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:42 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:48 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:17 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:11 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.7 | 14 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 65 | 145 |
| 2024-25 | 11.0 | 15 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 74 | 163 |
| 2023-24 | 15.7 | 25 | plus 9.3 goals above expected | 70 | 217 |
| 2022-23 | 13.6 | 12 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 66 | 195 |
| 2021-22 | 21.0 | 22 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 74 | 264 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 7 goals, 12 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 24 assists, 32 points | 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
145 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.