Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 445 game sample- PTS
- 27.4
- SOG
- 156.6
- G
- 6.9
- A
- 20.5
- PPP
- 1.0
- HIT
- 181.1
- BLK
- 179.7
- PIM
- 51.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 445 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 445 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 445 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.91
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.21
- BLK
- 2.20
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 10 | 25 | 35 | 0.43 | 166 | 22:50 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 0.18 | 111 | 20:31 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 0.32 | 129 | 21:15 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0.37 | 199 | 21:12 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 0.48 | 204 | 22:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 24 | 24:30 |
| 2023-24 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.44 | 18 | 20:59 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 17 | 22:35 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.25 | 55 | 24:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22:09 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:49 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:11 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22:18 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22:08 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24:35 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 25:08 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:46 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:30 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.3 | 10 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 76 | 238 |
| 2024-25 | 4.0 | 1 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 68 | 164 |
| 2023-24 | 5.3 | 3 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 63 | 164 |
| 2022-23 | 8.6 | 8 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 78 | 252 |
| 2021-22 | 12.2 | 11 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 79 | 277 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 23 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 23 assists, 32 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
238 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.