Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 471 game sample- PTS
- 27.3
- SOG
- 96.9
- G
- 5.6
- A
- 21.7
- PPP
- 1.3
- HIT
- 49.9
- BLK
- 173.9
- PIM
- 19.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 471 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 471 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 471 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.18
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.60
- BLK
- 2.13
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 6 | 26 | 32 | 0.39 | 83 | 23:14 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 0.33 | 99 | 22:11 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 0.32 | 114 | 20:28 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 0.29 | 116 | 19:55 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 4 | 21 | 25 | 0.33 | 136 | 22:03 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 9 | 25:19 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 18 | 23:32 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.26 | 23 | 24:45 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.16 | 28 | 20:50 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 17 | 23:15 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20:29 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 34:17 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 30:16 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:16 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21:18 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:14 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:22 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:57 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.1 | 6 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 65 | 124 |
| 2024-25 | 6.3 | 5 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 70 | 147 |
| 2023-24 | 5.5 | 5 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 70 | 166 |
| 2022-23 | 6.5 | 8 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 70 | 149 |
| 2021-22 | 5.5 | 4 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 64 | 159 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 23 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 21 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
124 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.