Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 422 game sample- PTS
- 53.1
- SOG
- 95.5
- G
- 16.2
- A
- 37.0
- PPP
- 16.4
- HIT
- 36.2
- BLK
- 53.9
- PIM
- 22.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 422 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 422 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 422 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.45
- SOG
- 1.16
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 0.44
- BLK
- 0.66
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 0.61 | 93 | 19:23 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 13 | 38 | 51 | 0.65 | 73 | 19:31 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 16 | 35 | 51 | 0.68 | 97 | 18:29 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 16 | 49 | 65 | 0.80 | 120 | 19:01 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 21 | 43 | 64 | 0.81 | 125 | 19:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 7 | 17:47 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0.91 | 35 | 18:20 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:04 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:03 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.9 | 16 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 68 | 128 |
| 2024-25 | 7.8 | 13 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 61 | 103 |
| 2023-24 | 11.7 | 16 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 57 | 135 |
| 2022-23 | 17.9 | 16 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 73 | 164 |
| 2021-22 | 17.5 | 21 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 66 | 158 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 17 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 25 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 37 assists, 46 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 34 assists, 47 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
Shot locations
128 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.