Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 401 game sample- PTS
- 26.8
- SOG
- 83.6
- G
- 4.8
- A
- 22.0
- PPP
- 0.3
- HIT
- 143.2
- BLK
- 179.2
- PIM
- 58.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 401 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 401 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 401 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.27
- SOG
- 1.02
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.75
- BLK
- 2.19
- PIM
- 0.71
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 0.31 | 77 | 22:25 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 2 | 21 | 23 | 0.35 | 74 | 21:31 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 0.38 | 73 | 20:40 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 0.33 | 96 | 19:28 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 4 | 18 | 22 | 0.29 | 80 | 20:19 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.31 | 10 | 21:57 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 5 | 21:24 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 16 | 20:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:35 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:14 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:42 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25:06 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:45 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 25:36 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 20:09 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:33 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 24:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.1 | 5 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 61 | 120 |
| 2024-25 | 2.9 | 2 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 48 | 99 |
| 2023-24 | 4.5 | 8 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 59 | 113 |
| 2022-23 | 4.5 | 3 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 61 | 135 |
| 2021-22 | 4.4 | 4 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 58 | 111 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 20 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 22 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
120 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.